Mexico 2050. Challenges, Scenarios & Actions

About this Publishing House

About the Authors

Dedication

Acknowledgments

Foreword

Introduction

First part. 15 Challenges Towards 2050

Challenge 1: Sustainable Development, Climate Change, and National Security

1.1 Introduction

1.1.1 Sustainable Development

1.1.2 Climate Change

1.1.3 National Security

1.2 Challenges                   

1.3 Mexico's Commitments          

1.4 Futurible Scenarios 2050

1.5 Futurible Scenarios 2050

1.6 Thoughts and Requirements

1.7 References

Challenge 2: Clean Water for Everyone

2.1 Water in Mexico           

2.2 Current Problems

2.2.1 The Big Problems    

2.2.2 Water Management

2.2.3 Water Use

2.2.4 Water Quality

2.3 Visions of the Future   

2.3.1 The Water Crisis and Some Trends in Sight      

2.3.2 Trend Scenario        

2.4 Challenges and Opportunities          

2.4.1 Main Challenges      

2.4.2 Opportunities

2.5 Final Thoughts

2.6 References       

Challenge 3. The Horn of Scarcity and its People       

3.1 Introduction       

3.2 Five Key Points

3.3 Contextualization of the Key Points 

3.3.1 Demographic Transition     

3.3.2 Fall in the Fertility Rate       

3.3.3 Increasing Level of Urbanization  

3.3.4 Land Degradation

3.3.5 Loss of Ecosystems and Biodiversity                  

3.4 Future Trends Vision

3.4.1 Trends for the Demographic Transition   

3.4.2 Trends for Levels of Urbanization

3.4.3 Trends for Loss of Biodiversity     

3.5 Aspirational Futures Vision

3.6 Final Thoughts

3.7 References       

Challenge 4: Democracy in Mexico

4.1 Introduction

4.2 The Challenges of Democratization in Mexico

4.2.1 Guaranteeing Citizens’ Rights  

4.2.2 Social and Economic Integration of Citizens

4.2.3 Alternatives to Traditional Forms of Participation

4.2.4 Creating Responsive and Democratic Institutions

4.2.5 A Political Culture for Democracy

4.3 Challenges of Democracy in Mexico: Future Vision

4.3.1 Deepening and Guaranteeing Political Rights and Civil Liberties of the Population

4.3.2 Social and Economic Integration

4.3.3 Seeking Alternatives to Traditional Forms of Participation

4.3.4 Responsive and Democratic Institutions

4.3.5 Building A Political Culture for Democracy

4.4 References

Challenge 5: Long-Term Mexican Policies and Decision-Making

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Background of the Mexican Political System

5.2.1 Decision-making at the Presidential Stage

5.2.2 Party Alternation and the Crisis of the Political System

5.3 Government Policy Crisis

5.3.1 World Trend              

5.3.2 Government Model Crisis

5.3.3 SWOT Diagnosis of Mexico

5.4 Aspects for the Implementation of Government Policies

5.5 Paradigm Shift 

5.6 Reflections        

5.7 References

Challenge 6: Foresight of the Convergence of Information and Communication Technologies in Mexico by 2050

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Trend Vision

6.2.1 Where is Global and Regional Digital Development Heading?

6.2.2 How to Leverage Digital Technologies to Generate Social and Economic Impact?

6.3 Aspirational Vision

6.3.1 Reverse Signature Models, Platforms and Blockchain to Promote New Zero Marginal Cost Business Models

6.3.2 Artificial Intelligence as the Basis for Knowledge Generation

6.3.3 The Development of IXP, IPV6 and 5G+ Networks as Platforms for Mobility, Transport, Digital and Internet of Things Access

6.4 Reflections

6.5 References

Challenge 7: Reducing the Gap Between Poverty and Wealth in Mexico by 2050

7.1 Introduction

7.1.1 Theoretical Approaches

7.2 Analysis of The Situation in Mexico: Mexico, a Country of Inequalities

7.2.1 Economic Inequality

7.2.2 The Inequality Reflected in the Other Social Gaps: Education, Health, Social Security and Access to Basic Services

7.2.3 Job Insecurity and Wage Gap

7.2.4 Inequality and Social Programs

7.3 Factors of Change to Build a Humane, Competitive, and Participatory Mexico

7.3.1 Factors of Change

7.4 Actors of Change: with Whom and Who?

7.5 Building the Foundations to Reduce the Gap

7.5.1 Inequality and the Educational Gap

7.5.2 Inequality, the Pay Gap, and Fiscal Policy

7.6 Value Proposition: Seven Strategies to Reduce the Gap Between Poverty and Wealth

7.6.1 The Possible Aspiration: from Strategy to Action in the Mexico of 2050

7.7 Final Thoughts

7.8 References

Challenge 8: Health Foresight for Mexico 2050

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Summary of the Five Key Points of the Challenge

8.2.1 The Health System in Mexico

8.2.2 Population Characteristics

8.2.3 Economic Aspect

8.2.4 Resources

8.2.5 New Markets

8.3 Current Situation

8.3.1 The Healthcare System in Mexico

8.3.2 Health in the Mexican Population

8.3.3 Healthcare Budget

8.3.4 Healthcare Resources

8.3.5 New Healthcare Markets

8.4 Future Vision

8.4.1 The Trends

8.4.2 The Aspiration

8.5 Final Considerations

8.6 References

Challenge 9: Mexican Education Foresight in 2050

9.1 Introduction: Liquid Times

9.2 Signs of the Future

9.2.1 The Debate on the Future of Education

9.2.2 Mexico: Slow Progress, Past Burdens, and Liquid Future

9.2.3 From Reform to Reconversion of the Neoliberal Model

9.3 Is There a Future? An Approach to Alternative Scenarios

9.3.1 Trends: The Balkanization of Education

9.3.2 The Desirable Possibility: Resilience as a Transition to Postmodernity

9.3.3 Future

9.4 Final Thoughts 

9.4.1 Future Predictions

9.5 References       

Challenge 10: Peace and Conflict in Mexico

10.1 Introduction

10.2 First Source of Conflict

10.3 Second Source of Conflict

10.4 Types of Conflicts in Mexico

10.5 Future Vision

10.6 Final Thoughts

10.7 References

Challenge 11: Gender Equality Perspective

11.1 Introduction

11.2 Identification of Key Points

11.3 Development of Key Points

11.3.1 Safety for Women and Girls

11.3.2 Teenage Pregnancies

11.3.3 Access to Power

11.3.4 Work 4.0 Women and STEM Girls

11.3.5 Sustainability

11.4 Future Trends Vision

11.4.1 Trends for Jobs and Political Access

11.4.2 Trends for the Sustainability of Women and Girls in Mexico

11.4.3 Aspirational Futures Vision

11.5 Recommendations on the Situation and Future of Women and Girls in Mexico

11.6 Final Thoughts

11.7 References     

Challenge 12: And What Happened to Transnational Organized Crime?

12.1 Introduction

12.2 TOC in Mexico from 1930 to 2018

12.2.1 The Cartels

12.2.2 Main Crimes

12.3 International Mafias and their Alliances in Mexico

12.4 What about TOC Income?  

12.5 What about Public Security Spending?

12.6 Actions for Prevention

12.6.1 Risk Factors and Successful Programs

12.6.2 Merida Initiative

12.7 The Activism of Mexican NGOs

12.8 Visions of Society towards 2050

12.9 Towards a Desired Scenario

12.10 Our Reflections

12.11 References

Challenge 13: Five Energy Challenges for Mexico by 2050

13.1 Introduction

13.2 Five Energy Challenges

13.2.1 Energy Security

13.2.2 Energy Transition

13.2.3 The Formation of Specialized Human Capital

13.2.4 Technological Development and Innovation

13.2.5 Socio-Environmental Impacts and Conflicts

13.3 State-of-the-Art Scenarios

13.3.1 Energy Security

13.3.2 Energy Transition

13.3.3 The Formation of Specialized Human Capital

13.3.4 Technological Development and Innovation

13.3.5 Socio-Environmental Impacts and Conflicts

13.4 Future Vision

13.5 Final Thoughts

13.6 References

Challenge 14: Scientific, Technological, and Social Innovation Foresight in Mexico Towards 2050

14.1 Introduction

14.2 Diagnosis

14.2.1 Analysis of the Current Situation

14.2.2 Need for Transformation

14.2.3 Determining Innovation Processes

14.3 Desirable Model and its Characterization

14.3.1 Key Points to Propel Innovation

14.4 Trend Forecast

14.5 Vision

14.6 Reflections

14.7 References

Challenge 15: Public Ethics and the Values of the Mexican Public Official by 2050

15.1 Introduction

15.2 Background of Public Ethics in Mexico

15.3 Public Ethics in Mexico at the Dawn of the 21^st century

15.4 Where are Ethics Going?

15.4.1 Continue down the Same Path

15.4.2 Turn towards to the Original Path of Politics

15.4.3 Institutionalize Ethics in Governments and Public Administrations

15.5 Final Thoughts

15.6 References

Second part. Scenarios to 2050

Characterization of Scenarios and Their Key Factors

16.1 References

Desirable Scenario: National Plenitude – A Democratic, Fair, and Peaceful Mexico

Possible Scenario: Futures Mexico – The Eternal Promise

18.1 Introduction

18.2 The Attempt to Build a Better Mexico

18.3 The Diagnosis

18.4 Prospective Vision

18.5 The Possible Scenario: The Eternal Promise

18.6 State, Government, and Democracy

18.7 Sustainable Development and the Economy

18.8 Social Development

18.9 Final Comments

Catastrophic Scenario: Agony and Desolation – Mutilated Unpunished, and Atrocious Mexico

19.1 Key Determining Factors of the Scenarios

Third part. Guiding Projects

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